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Strange Famous Forum > Social stuff. Political stuff. KNOWMORE

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sparrow



Joined: 11 Aug 2009
Posts: 331
Location: stolen land, the place where spirits get eaten.
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huh, ayn rand gets a shout out in that marketwatch article. that woman was a loony-toon. her and greenspan used to have cupcake parties where they and their little minions would pray to laissez-faire capitalist gods and invent philosophies that were self-contradicting at best, thinking it would bring perfection to the human race. well, we now see that didn't quite turn out the way they planned. good job you clowns.



Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:22 pm
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laurapalmer



Joined: 10 Jul 2002
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I kind of hated that market watch article. I thought he tried to spend more time taking swipes at Obama than discussing what "could" have been done "correctly." I put those in quotes because I fundamentally believe that he couldn't jettison all vestiges of the fed's leadership without making the crisis worse from a wall street and a morale perspective, as well because I don't think a "correct" existed precisely.

I also thought the correlation to new housing and the continued construction market was a little misguided, as that credit is being more commonly used on existing structures (if we are talking homebuyers credit, which is 8k, and wasn't named as such in the article).

The one piece that I think was alarmingly possible was another large dip on the horizon, implying this was the bounce back, and our 80% fall might still be coming. From my day to day in the business world, it is almost business as usual, and funding is actually being found. However, we have short attention spans and this is the holiday season, with good economic nunmbers coming in. My bet is that if another hard rain comes, we aren't seeing it until March at the earliest. We are going to be riding good feelings and positive Nov/Dec/Jan all the way into February when people realize that things are still pretty rough. Then things won't adjust until at least March, but more likely April when the first quarterly reports are going public. I can see May being extremely ugly, with even further complications coming as the slow summer business season kicks off and causing further panic.

The only thing that might escalate the time line is Dubai openly defaulting sooner. I expect that we won't see fallout until closer to that 6 month extension is dead, maybe 4 months in...or...March.
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 2:25 pm
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Joshua Kane



Joined: 14 Jul 2008
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Location: Carlsbad, CA
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laurapalmer wrote:
I kind of hated that market watch article. I thought he tried to spend more time taking swipes at Obama than discussing what "could" have been done "correctly." I put those in quotes because I fundamentally believe that he couldn't jettison all vestiges of the fed's leadership without making the crisis worse from a wall street and a morale perspective, as well because I don't think a "correct" existed precisely.

I also thought the correlation to new housing and the continued construction market was a little misguided, as that credit is being more commonly used on existing structures (if we are talking homebuyers credit, which is 8k, and wasn't named as such in the article).

The one piece that I think was alarmingly possible was another large dip on the horizon, implying this was the bounce back, and our 80% fall might still be coming. From my day to day in the business world, it is almost business as usual, and funding is actually being found. However, we have short attention spans and this is the holiday season, with good economic nunmbers coming in. My bet is that if another hard rain comes, we aren't seeing it until March at the earliest. We are going to be riding good feelings and positive Nov/Dec/Jan all the way into February when people realize that things are still pretty rough. Then things won't adjust until at least March, but more likely April when the first quarterly reports are going public. I can see May being extremely ugly, with even further complications coming as the slow summer business season kicks off and causing further panic.

The only thing that might escalate the time line is Dubai openly defaulting sooner. I expect that we won't see fallout until closer to that 6 month extension is dead, maybe 4 months in...or...March.


I agree with this timeline, hey, I actually pretty much agree with everything above. It seems unlikely any contagion from Dubai or something similar will get in the way of this rally before 1st quarter-ish next year. And I'm a fan of the old saw: never let an opinion get in the way of making money (flame away capitalist haters, I hate me too). So I'm still in this market, but watchin like a hawk, daily.

What I find incredibly interesting is that everyone is making a similar 'difficult post 1st quarter 2010 forecast', which makes me wonder a number of things. Here's one: how will the Iranian situation (which is coming to a head now at a similar pace) interact with expectations for a double dip starting around march next year? My guess: not well.
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 2:35 pm
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remind



Joined: 22 Jun 2008
Posts: 2199
Location: NJ
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sparrow wrote:
huh, ayn rand gets a shout out in that marketwatch article. that woman was a loony-toon. her and greenspan used to have cupcake parties where they and their little minions would pray to laissez-faire capitalist gods and invent philosophies that were self-contradicting at best, thinking it would bring perfection to the human race. well, we now see that didn't quite turn out the way they planned. good job you clowns.






I'm not sure who's more closed-minded... die-hard Rand fans or Rand haters who never read any of her stuff.
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 2:36 pm
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sparrow



Joined: 11 Aug 2009
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Location: stolen land, the place where spirits get eaten.
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Last edited by sparrow on Tue Dec 01, 2009 2:55 pm; edited 1 time in total
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 2:47 pm
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Joshua Kane



Joined: 14 Jul 2008
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Location: Carlsbad, CA
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sparrow wrote:
remind wrote:
I'm not sure who's more closed-minded... die-hard Rand fans or Rand haters who never read any of her stuff.



i could care less about her literary work, shes a nut-job in real life, thats all im concerned with here as mentioned in the news article that joshua kane posted. i mean, whats your point, really? that im closed minded for pointing out the fact that this woman invented a philosophy thats bat-shit crazy? uh, ok. noted.


The article was actually disparaging of Rand and her deregulationist philosophies in a number of different places. You realize that right? The article also links to ancient market maven Grantham's October newsletter, and at the end, Grantham puts together a very persuasive thought piece on breaking up the banks, which gets into some nitty gritty that Farrel does not (as Laura pointed out) regarding what might be better:

http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_3Q09.pdf
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 2:53 pm
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sparrow



Joined: 11 Aug 2009
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Location: stolen land, the place where spirits get eaten.
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Joshua Kane wrote:
sparrow wrote:
remind wrote:
I'm not sure who's more closed-minded... die-hard Rand fans or Rand haters who never read any of her stuff.



i could care less about her literary work, shes a nut-job in real life, thats all im concerned with here as mentioned in the news article that joshua kane posted. i mean, whats your point, really? that im closed minded for pointing out the fact that this woman invented a philosophy thats bat-shit crazy? uh, ok. noted.


The article was actually disparaging of Rand and her deregulationist philosophies in a number of different places. You realize that right? The article also links to ancient market maven Grantham's October newsletter, and at the end, Grantham puts together a very persuasive thought piece on breaking up the banks, which gets into some nitty gritty that Farrel does not (as Laura pointed out) regarding what might be better:

http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_3Q09.pdf


no i had no....... yes i realize that.
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:00 pm
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note1



Joined: 10 Jul 2002
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yeah I keep hearing about next year and a double dip. I'm guessing it come whenever the Fed starts to raise int rates or probably just before as those in the know get out of the equities market.
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:07 pm
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The Count



Joined: 26 May 2006
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Location: Chapel Hill
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laurapalmer wrote:

The one piece that I think was alarmingly possible was another large dip on the horizon, implying this was the bounce back, and our 80% fall might still be coming. From my day to day in the business world, it is almost business as usual, and funding is actually being found. However, we have short attention spans and this is the holiday season, with good economic nunmbers coming in. My bet is that if another hard rain comes, we aren't seeing it until March at the earliest. We are going to be riding good feelings and positive Nov/Dec/Jan all the way into February when people realize that things are still pretty rough. Then things won't adjust until at least March, but more likely April when the first quarterly reports are going public. I can see May being extremely ugly, with even further complications coming as the slow summer business season kicks off and causing further panic.


I think you're overestimating the optimism in the world right now. consumer confidence is still at all-time lows and even if it did continue it's increase from last month it would still take roughly three years for us to get to the average level of 95-05 decade.
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:08 pm
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sparrow



Joined: 11 Aug 2009
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and as far as all of your predictions based on predictions go, its all moot until we address the ridiculousness of all of the fundamentals the FED is based on. until that is completely restructured all of this blow hard economic talk means nada, friend. not to mention the WTO and IMF monster lurking in the background.
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:08 pm
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Joshua Kane



Joined: 14 Jul 2008
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sparrow wrote:
and as far as all of your predictions based on predictions go, its all moot until we address the ridiculousness of all of the fundamentals the FED is based on. until that is completely restructured all of this blow hard economic talk means nada, friend. not to mention the WTO and IMF monster lurking in the background.


Audit the Fed! (From the knowmore site):
http://www.strangefamousrecords.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=47276
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:20 pm
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remind



Joined: 22 Jun 2008
Posts: 2199
Location: NJ
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sparrow wrote:
remind wrote:
I'm not sure who's more closed-minded... die-hard Rand fans or Rand haters who never read any of her stuff.



i could care less about her literary work, shes a nut-job in real life, thats all im concerned with here as mentioned in the news article that joshua kane posted. i mean, whats your point, really? that im closed minded for pointing out the fact that this woman invented a philosophy thats bat-shit crazy? uh, ok. noted.


Ha. Ya know, I wasn't referring to you at all. Was just making a statement. But the fact that you could care less about her literary work (which implies that you haven't read anything of hers, right?) and then go on to bash her philosophy (which stems from her literary work, mostly) is interesting.
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:21 pm
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sparrow



Joined: 11 Aug 2009
Posts: 331
Location: stolen land, the place where spirits get eaten.
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remind wrote:
sparrow wrote:
remind wrote:
I'm not sure who's more closed-minded... die-hard Rand fans or Rand haters who never read any of her stuff.



i could care less about her literary work, shes a nut-job in real life, thats all im concerned with here as mentioned in the news article that joshua kane posted. i mean, whats your point, really? that im closed minded for pointing out the fact that this woman invented a philosophy thats bat-shit crazy? uh, ok. noted.


Ha. Ya know, I wasn't referring to you at all. Was just making a statement. But the fact that you could care less about her literary work (which implies that you haven't read anything of hers, right?) and then go on to bash her philosophy (which stems from her literary work, mostly) is interesting.


nah friend, i just read her philosophy directly, that way you know, i know what her philosophy is. i unfortunately have to reiterate myself here but, her philosophy is self-contradictory at best. we can pull it out and check it if you want. i thought you would know though after your statements here. most interesting, indeed.
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:41 pm
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sparrow



Joined: 11 Aug 2009
Posts: 331
Location: stolen land, the place where spirits get eaten.
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Joshua Kane wrote:
sparrow wrote:
and as far as all of your predictions based on predictions go, its all moot until we address the ridiculousness of all of the fundamentals the FED is based on. until that is completely restructured all of this blow hard economic talk means nada, friend. not to mention the WTO and IMF monster lurking in the background.


Audit the Fed! (From the knowmore site):
http://www.strangefamousrecords.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=47276


yup
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:44 pm
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remind



Joined: 22 Jun 2008
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Pff ok.
Post Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:48 pm
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