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Is it too early to call a 2012 victory for Obama?
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Strange Famous Forum > Social stuff. Political stuff. KNOWMORE

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redball



Joined: 12 May 2006
Posts: 6871
Location: Northern New Jersey
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I think Obama's election has changed what is acceptable for a US politician to be. It's painfully obvious that anyone who hoped this would usher in a post-racism era was a fool, but he did break barriers with regard to what qualifications must be in place to be President. He's like the Jackie Robinson of Presidential politics. If a black Muslim can be President then so can a white Mormon.

I think a lot of the social conservative Republicans (racists) were assuming that Obama had no chance. So they voted against the person who was least like them, even if they weren't too enthusiastic about it. This time around, they know what will happen if they lose that enthusiasm, and their (racist) base is far more motivated, as are their moderates. All Romney has to do is convince them that he can take them there and they'll be for him.

As for that Norman piece, he's all excited about what this means (and I largely agree with his assessment), but that's not enough enthusiasm to last for over a year. If the ObL kill happened 14 months from now it would've been like bombing the RNC, but it happened too soon for the direct effect to last.
Post Wed May 04, 2011 11:22 am
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Mac Lethal
the one with the back hair


Joined: 19 Apr 2003
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No solid front-runner for the right. After the Bin Laden Novacaine wears off, whoever it is is as the front-runner is going to focus on the economy/unemployment and gas prices (which tripled under the Bush administration). I see ANWR blowing up pretty heavily, especially if Ron Paul makes it a prime focus.

No idea. I'd say Obama can take 2012. I would like to see him stay and half of Congress go, but that won't happen! Ha! HAHA! HAHAHA!
Post Wed May 04, 2011 1:53 pm
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jakethesnake
guy who cried about wrestling being real


Joined: 03 Feb 2006
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If ANWR is blowing up, they better start out on the Northern Pass project if they want to win the primaries. This issue is huge (see:unpopular) here lately.

We sort of touched on this in the Japan earthquake/"down with nuclear power" thread, no one wants this kind of shit in their backyards and national forests/parks.
Post Wed May 04, 2011 2:01 pm
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jakethesnake
guy who cried about wrestling being real


Joined: 03 Feb 2006
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crash wrote:
gas prices.


http://www.unionleader.com/article/20110430/NEWS0605/704309957


Quote:

MANCHESTER — In his first public retail-style event of the budding 2012 campaign, Mitt Romney went to the Hillsborough Gas and Repair station Friday to put $38.52 worth of regular gasoline into the Ford Escape he arrived in and to accuse President Barack Obama of having an ineffective energy policy that focuses solely on “green” technology.

cont'd


I actually drive by that gas station on the way to work. NH is kind of a small place.
Post Thu May 05, 2011 7:11 am
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name



Joined: 12 Nov 2002
Posts: 955
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i'll go out on a limb here and say that obama's re-election is virtually assured. furthermore, while the bin laden thing is a boost, it won't make much of difference in 2012 (maybe a couple extra pct points max).

i think across the board people SEVERELY underestimate this guy's electability and campaign skills. beside his effective governance, it's actually kind of scary how good he is at political jujitsu. there is no one on the other side who even comes close. he's been rope-a-doping the fuck out of the opposition (and even his base) and has consistently delivered a knock out blow on a range of issues over the last 2.5 years. add to that - despite mediocre job approval ratings, his "like him as a person" poll numbers are always much higher. i would argue that, for better or worse, this is far more important than approval numbers come election time. i honestly wouldn't bet against obama even with 10% unemployment.
Post Thu May 05, 2011 7:53 am
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jakethesnake
guy who cried about wrestling being real


Joined: 03 Feb 2006
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http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30/never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012


Quote:

Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012

By Paul Bedard, Lauren Fox
August 30, 2011

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagans 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.

Even if I am being conservative, I dont see how Obama can lose, says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.

Lichtmans prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election. [Check out political cartoons about the 2012 GOP field.]

Working for the president are several of Lichtmans keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obamas crowning achievement.

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.The keys have figured into popular politics a bit, Lichtman says. Theyve never missed. Theyve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.

Lichtmans earned quite the reputation. In 1992, it seemed likely former President George H.W. Bush would be re-elected, having reached historic highs in popularity after he launched a war that pushed Iraqi troops out of Kuwait. But Lichtman thought otherwise and that factored into former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clintons decision to challenge Bush.I got a call from this woman with a thick southern drawl. It was Clintons special assistant. She wanted to know if it was true that a Democrat could win. I assured her it was and I sent Clinton a copy of my book and a memo and the rest is history. [See photos of the Obamas behind the scenes.]

In 2005, Lichtman also hit a home run when he said that the political stage was looking so bad for Republicans that Democrats could pick a name out of the phone book and win in 2008, the year a little known first-term senator became the first African-American to win the presidency.

Now Lichtmans predicting a repeat performance by Obama.

Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama.

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss. Obama loses this key.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obamas unchallenged status, I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary. Obama wins this key.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.
Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point.
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an undecided.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession. Obama loses this key. [Read: Seven Ways Obama Can Gain Credibility on Jobs.]
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. There have been major policy changes in this administration. Weve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change, says the scholar. Another win for Obama.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, There wasnt any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isnt. Obama wins a fifth key here.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. This administration has been squeaky clean. Theres nothing on scandal, says Lichtman. Another Obama win.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, We havent seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and dont foresee anything. Obama wins again.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success. Obama wins his eighth key.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. Hes really led from behind. He didnt really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didnt use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. Hes lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election. Obama loses this key. [See political cartoons about President Obama.]
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, We havent seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably wont. Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.

Post Thu Sep 01, 2011 10:16 am
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Captiv8



Joined: 25 Aug 2006
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It feels sort of wrong and sort of right to say this, but I can't see the vast majority of Americans (or the Electoral College) voting for a Mormon. I have nothing against Mormons personally, but their seemingly paradoxical blend of liberalism and conservatism just doesn't mesh well with my own beliefs.
Post Thu Sep 01, 2011 10:53 am
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jakethesnake
guy who cried about wrestling being real


Joined: 03 Feb 2006
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Captiv8 wrote:
It feels sort of wrong and sort of right to say this, but I can't see the vast majority of Americans (or the Electoral College) voting for a Mormon. I have nothing against Mormons personally, but their seemingly paradoxical blend of liberalism and conservatism just doesn't mesh well with my own beliefs.


You mean the freedom of being liberal with the convenience of tax breaks?

edit: I suppose that could apply to a lot of religions...
Post Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:08 am
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futuristxen



Joined: 01 Jul 2002
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Have any of the republicans started hammering Rick Perry for the fact that he used to be an Al Gore supporting Democrat? It seems weird that as militantly ideological as the right is, that something like that would go without notice.

I mean he freaking ran Al Gore's campaign in Texas.

Has Glen Beck called him a progressive sleeper cell yet?
Post Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:05 pm
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bigsole
Bought his character on ebay


Joined: 27 Aug 2002
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i'm only voting this time if ron paul or denis kucinich are running.

i know ron paul would likely turn america into a giant gated community, but at least he'd dismantle the empire. obama is turning america into a giant gated community anyway. at least ron paul doesn't have any pretenses.
Post Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:54 pm
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Captiv8



Joined: 25 Aug 2006
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jakethesnake wrote:
Captiv8 wrote:
It feels sort of wrong and sort of right to say this, but I can't see the vast majority of Americans (or the Electoral College) voting for a Mormon. I have nothing against Mormons personally, but their seemingly paradoxical blend of liberalism and conservatism just doesn't mesh well with my own beliefs.


You mean the freedom of being liberal with the convenience of tax breaks?

edit: I suppose that could apply to a lot of religions...


I meant morally/culturally, with the whole polygamy and patriarchy caboodle. Are they still doing the polygamy thing or what? I don't really know. Oh, and every Mormon girl I knew in high school was totally in to giving blowjobs but totally against the ole in-and-out. Less work for me. Zing!
Post Thu Sep 01, 2011 1:13 pm
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Hellen Earth
could be a girl. could be a guy.


Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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I don't understand why Ron Paul doesn't get more love around here. He is the first politician I can recall that doesn't come across like a complete bullshit artist. Plus, he's got kind eyes.
Post Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:04 pm
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jakethesnake
guy who cried about wrestling being real


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Hellen Earth wrote:
I don't understand why Ron Paul doesn't get more love around here. He is the first politician I can recall that doesn't come across like a complete bullshit artist. Plus, he's got kind eyes.


We frightened them off with pitchforks.
Post Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:28 pm
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d-nyce36



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Hellen Earth wrote:
I don't understand why Ron Paul doesn't get more love around here. He is the first politician I can recall that doesn't come across like a complete bullshit artist. Plus, he's got kind eyes.


How about this for starters.

http://newsone.com/nation/casey-gane-mccalla/ron-pauls-racist-newsletters-revealed/

[/quote]
Post Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:41 pm
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tommi teardrop



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Ron Paul will never gain acceptance from a community like this because most liberals have become internationalists over the last decade. Also libertarianism is now seen as an ideology for white people who liken their struggle against government to the oppression experienced as a result of systematic prejudice. It's the reason why staunch liberals rip on South Park and Jim Norton and Colin Quinn and Joe Rogan and Adam Corolla.

Some of it is stupid, but there are also huge problems in Ron Pau'ls platforms that he would never be able to overcome. Most of us, including republicans, think there are certain things that the government must provide. When Ron Paul talks about eliminating income tax, abolishing the IRS, cutting virtually all government programs, eliminating corporate regulation, he is losing almost everyone. Plus he is probably the most militant capitalist in politics.

We all sorta like him because he's a breath of fresh air in contemporary politics. He is against the idea of the american empire, he opposes these wars, he favors decriminalization of drugs, he wants to eliminate frivolous spending and corporate welfare. His politics coincide with his ideology.

He's the conservative Bulworth.

I think it is good to have someone like him in Washington, he provides much lulz, and he would be a great 3rd party candidate from a democrat's perspective (because of his ability to illustrate the problems with conservatism), but if we are seriously talking about him holding this country's highest office, come the fuck on.
Post Thu Sep 01, 2011 2:41 pm
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